一、匯率風險概述
(一(yi))匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)概念(nian) 匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(foreign exchange risk)是(shi)指(zhi)在(zai)(zai)一(yi)定(ding)(ding)時(shi)期的(de)(de)(de)國際經(jing)(jing)濟交易當中,以(yi)外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)計價的(de)(de)(de)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)與負債(zhai)(zhai),因匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)變(bian)動而導致其價值漲跌的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)。其要點在(zai)(zai)于:首先,風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)或(huo)負債(zhai)(zhai)變(bian)化(hua)的(de)(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)(ding)性(xing);其次,這(zhe)種不(bu)(bu)確(que)定(ding)(ding)性(xing)源于匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)頻(pin)繁(fan)變(bian)化(hua);再者,風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)是(shi)損失與收益的(de)(de)(de)統一(yi),這(zhe)里主要討論損失;另外(wai)(wai)(wai),風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)承(cheng)擔(dan)者涵蓋直(zhi)接和間接從事國際經(jing)(jing)濟交易的(de)(de)(de)企業、銀行、個人和政府等(deng)(deng)部門;最后,并非所有外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)(zhai)都(dou)面臨(lin)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian),只有一(yi)部分(fen)被稱為(wei)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)頭寸(cun)、敞口或(huo)受險(xian)(xian)(xian)部分(fen)的(de)(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)(zhai)面臨(lin)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)。匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)敞口(foreign exchange exposure),也(ye)就是(shi)受險(xian)(xian)(xian)部分(fen),是(shi)指(zhi)金融機構在(zai)(zai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)買賣中,買賣未能(neng)抵(di)消的(de)(de)(de)面臨(lin)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)變(bian)動風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)金額。例如(ru)在(zai)(zai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)交易中,風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)頭寸(cun)體現為(wei)外(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)超買(多頭)或(huo)超賣(空頭)部分(fen);在(zai)(zai)企業經(jing)(jing)營中,風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)頭寸(cun)表現為(wei)外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)負債(zhai)(zhai)不(bu)(bu)相(xiang)匹配的(de)(de)(de)部分(fen),像外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)大于或(huo)小(xiao)于負債(zhai)(zhai),或(huo)者外(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產(chan)與負債(zhai)(zhai)數量相(xiang)等(deng)(deng)但期限不(bu)(bu)一(yi)致。
(二)匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)成(cheng)(cheng)因分(fen)析(xi) 匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)的(de)(de)形(xing)成(cheng)(cheng)有(you)多種原因。從宏觀層(ceng)面(mian)看(kan),國(guo)(guo)際經濟形(xing)勢的(de)(de)變(bian)化會影響匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)。例如(ru)(ru)全球經濟增長(chang)速度的(de)(de)快慢、各國(guo)(guo)之間(jian)的(de)(de)貿易收(shou)支狀況等。當(dang)一個國(guo)(guo)家的(de)(de)貿易順差(cha)過(guo)大時,其貨幣往(wang)往(wang)有(you)升值(zhi)壓力(li);反(fan)之則有(you)貶值(zhi)壓力(li)。從微觀層(ceng)面(mian)看(kan),企業(ye)自身的(de)(de)國(guo)(guo)際業(ye)務結構和(he)經營決策也(ye)會帶來匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。如(ru)(ru)果企業(ye)在海外市場有(you)大量的(de)(de)投資或者貿易往(wang)來,而沒有(you)對(dui)匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)進行有(you)效的(de)(de)管理,那么(me)匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)波動(dong)就會直接影響企業(ye)的(de)(de)收(shou)益(yi)。
二、銀行匯率風險的類型
銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)主要包括以(yi)下幾種類型。 1. 外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)交易(yi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian) 這(zhe)是銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)在(zai)(zai)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)買(mai)賣業務(wu)(wu)(wu)時(shi)面臨(lin)的(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。例如銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)買(mai)入一種外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)并期望在(zai)(zai)未來以(yi)更高的(de)價格賣出以(yi)賺取差價,但如果(guo)在(zai)(zai)持有(you)(you)該外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)幣(bi)期間(jian)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)下跌,銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)就會(hui)(hui)遭(zao)受損失。這(zhe)種風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)與外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)市場(chang)的(de)波動(dong)(dong)密切相(xiang)關(guan),匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)的(de)瞬間(jian)波動(dong)(dong)都可(ke)能(neng)(neng)導(dao)致銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)交易(yi)的(de)盈利(li)或(huo)虧損情況發(fa)生巨(ju)大(da)變(bian)(bian)化(hua)。 2. 外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)折(zhe)算(suan)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian) 銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)在(zai)(zai)對其海外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)分支(zhi)機(ji)構或(huo)者跨國業務(wu)(wu)(wu)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)報(bao)表(biao)合(he)并時(shi),由于匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)的(de)變(bian)(bian)動(dong)(dong),會(hui)(hui)使以(yi)本幣(bi)表(biao)示的(de)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)數(shu)據發(fa)生變(bian)(bian)化(hua)。比(bi)如一家(jia)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)在(zai)(zai)國外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)有(you)(you)分支(zhi)機(ji)構,該分支(zhi)機(ji)構以(yi)當(dang)地(di)貨幣(bi)記錄資產和(he)負(fu)債,當(dang)把這(zhe)些資產和(he)負(fu)債折(zhe)算(suan)成本幣(bi)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)合(he)并報(bao)表(biao)時(shi),如果(guo)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)發(fa)生變(bian)(bian)化(hua),那么報(bao)表(biao)上的(de)數(shu)值(zhi)就會(hui)(hui)改變(bian)(bian),可(ke)能(neng)(neng)會(hui)(hui)影響銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)的(de)整體(ti)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)狀(zhuang)況和(he)業績評(ping)估。 3. 外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)信(xin)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian) 當(dang)銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)與客戶(hu)進行(xing)(xing)(xing)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)相(xiang)關(guan)業務(wu)(wu)(wu)時(shi),如果(guo)客戶(hu)因(yin)為匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)波動(dong)(dong)導(dao)致自身(shen)財(cai)務(wu)(wu)(wu)狀(zhuang)況惡化(hua)而無法履行(xing)(xing)(xing)合(he)約(yue)(yue),銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)就會(hui)(hui)面臨(lin)信(xin)用(yong)風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。例如銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)與企業簽訂(ding)了(le)外(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)(wai)匯(hui)(hui)遠期合(he)約(yue)(yue),企業由于匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)變(bian)(bian)動(dong)(dong)遭(zao)受巨(ju)大(da)損失而破(po)產,銀(yin)(yin)行(xing)(xing)(xing)就可(ke)能(neng)(neng)無法按照合(he)約(yue)(yue)收到相(xiang)應的(de)款(kuan)項。
三、匯率風險的衡量
(一(yi))價(jia)值 - at - 風險(VaR) 這是一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)常用的(de)(de)(de)(de)衡量匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)指標(biao)(biao)。它表示在(zai)一(yi)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)置(zhi)信(xin)水(shui)平(ping)下,在(zai)未(wei)來特(te)定的(de)(de)(de)(de)一(yi)段時間內,匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)可能導致的(de)(de)(de)(de)*損失(shi)。例如,一(yi)家企業(ye)通(tong)(tong)過(guo)計(ji)算(suan)得出在(zai)95%的(de)(de)(de)(de)置(zhi)信(xin)水(shui)平(ping)下,未(wei)來一(yi)個月內其(qi)因(yin)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)可能遭受的(de)(de)(de)(de)*損失(shi)為(wei)100萬美元。這有助(zhu)于企業(ye)提前了解風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)潛在(zai)規模(mo),從而做(zuo)好應(ying)對準(zhun)備。 (二)夏(xia)(xia)普(pu)比(bi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv) 夏(xia)(xia)普(pu)比(bi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)在(zai)衡量匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險時,綜合(he)(he)考慮了收(shou)益和(he)風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)關系。它通(tong)(tong)過(guo)計(ji)算(suan)投資(zi)(zi)組合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)預(yu)期回報率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)與(yu)無風險利(li)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)之差,再除以投資(zi)(zi)組合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)差得到。夏(xia)(xia)普(pu)比(bi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)越高,說明在(zai)相同風險下,投資(zi)(zi)組合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)收(shou)益越高;或者在(zai)相同收(shou)益下,投資(zi)(zi)組合(he)(he)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風險越低。在(zai)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險管(guan)理(li)中,可以用夏(xia)(xia)普(pu)比(bi)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)來評估不同匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險管(guan)理(li)策略的(de)(de)(de)(de)優劣(lie)。 (三)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)指標(biao)(biao) 匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)直接反(fan)映(ying)了匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險的(de)(de)(de)(de)大小。通(tong)(tong)過(guo)分析匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)歷史波(bo)動(dong)(dong)數據,可以計(ji)算(suan)出匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)差等波(bo)動(dong)(dong)性(xing)指標(biao)(biao)。如果一(yi)種(zhong)(zhong)貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)標(biao)(biao)準(zhun)差較(jiao)大,說明其(qi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)(dong)較(jiao)為(wei)劇(ju)烈(lie),企業(ye)在(zai)涉及該貨(huo)(huo)幣(bi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)國(guo)際(ji)業(ye)務時面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)(lv)風險就較(jiao)高。
四、匯率風險的管理
(一)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie) 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)識(shi)(shi)別(bie)是(shi)(shi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)首(shou)要步(bu)驟(zou)。企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)或銀(yin)行(xing)需要深入分(fen)析外部(bu)環境,包括國(guo)際政治(zhi)局勢、全(quan)球(qiu)經濟形勢等(deng)(deng),以(yi)(yi)及(ji)評估內部(bu)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。例如(ru)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)要清楚自身國(guo)際業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)規模、分(fen)布國(guo)家(jia)和(he)(he)地區等(deng)(deng)情況。同時,還需分(fen)析各項業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)活(huo)動(dong)對(dui)(dui)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)變動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)敏(min)(min)感(gan)度(du)(du)(du),比如(ru)出口業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)對(dui)(dui)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)敏(min)(min)感(gan)度(du)(du)(du)可(ke)能較高(gao),因為匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)(de)變化(hua)會直(zhi)接影響產(chan)品的(de)(de)(de)(de)出口價格和(he)(he)利(li)潤。只有全(quan)面準確(que)地識(shi)(shi)別(bie)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),才能為后續(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)措施(shi)(shi)奠(dian)定(ding)基(ji)礎。 (二)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)測(ce)量(liang) 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)測(ce)量(liang)是(shi)(shi)對(dui)(dui)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)進(jin)行(xing)量(liang)化(hua)和(he)(he)評估的(de)(de)(de)(de)過(guo)(guo)程。如(ru)前面提到的(de)(de)(de)(de)價值(zhi) - at - 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)、夏普比率(lv)(lv)(lv)、波動(dong)性指(zhi)標(biao)等(deng)(deng)都是(shi)(shi)常用的(de)(de)(de)(de)測(ce)量(liang)工(gong)具(ju)。利(li)用這些(xie)工(gong)具(ju)和(he)(he)模型,企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)更*地了解(jie)自身面臨的(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)程度(du)(du)(du)。例如(ru)一家(jia)跨國(guo)公司通(tong)過(guo)(guo)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)測(ce)量(liang)發現,其在(zai)(zai)某個(ge)新(xin)興市場國(guo)家(jia)的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)面臨著較高(gao)的(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian),因為當地貨幣匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)波動(dong)頻繁且幅度(du)(du)(du)較大(da),從而促使企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)重視(shi)對(dui)(dui)該地區業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)。 (三)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li) 1. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)避免(mian) 企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)調整(zheng)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)結構(gou)來(lai)避免(mian)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。例如(ru)減(jian)(jian)少在(zai)(zai)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)波動(dong)較大(da)地區的(de)(de)(de)(de)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)規模,或者改(gai)變業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)模式,從直(zhi)接出口轉(zhuan)變為在(zai)(zai)當地投資設廠等(deng)(deng)方式。不過(guo)(guo)這種方法可(ke)能會錯失一些(xie)市場機會。 2. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)移(yi) 這是(shi)(shi)較為常見的(de)(de)(de)(de)方式。企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)通(tong)過(guo)(guo)與(yu)客(ke)戶簽訂遠期(qi)(qi)(qi)合(he)(he)(he)(he)同,將(jiang)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)移(yi)給對(dui)(dui)方。例如(ru)一家(jia)外貿企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)與(yu)國(guo)外客(ke)戶簽訂遠期(qi)(qi)(qi)外匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)買(mai)賣(mai)合(he)(he)(he)(he)同,約定(ding)在(zai)(zai)未(wei)來(lai)某個(ge)時間按照固定(ding)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)進(jin)行(xing)交(jiao)易,這樣(yang)就把匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)波動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)移(yi)到了客(ke)戶身上。購買(mai)期(qi)(qi)(qi)權(quan)(quan)合(he)(he)(he)(he)約也是(shi)(shi)一種風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)轉(zhuan)移(yi)方式,企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)支付一定(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)期(qi)(qi)(qi)權(quan)(quan)費,獲得在(zai)(zai)未(wei)來(lai)按照特定(ding)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)進(jin)行(xing)交(jiao)易的(de)(de)(de)(de)權(quan)(quan)利(li)。 3. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)減(jian)(jian)輕(qing) 企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)可(ke)以(yi)(yi)采用匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)套期(qi)(qi)(qi)保值(zhi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)方法減(jian)(jian)輕(qing)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。例如(ru)利(li)用外匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨市場,通(tong)過(guo)(guo)買(mai)賣(mai)外匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)期(qi)(qi)(qi)貨合(he)(he)(he)(he)約來(lai)對(dui)(dui)沖匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)波動(dong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。此外,企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)還可(ke)以(yi)(yi)合(he)(he)(he)(he)理(li)(li)(li)(li)安排(pai)外幣資產(chan)和(he)(he)負債(zhai)的(de)(de)(de)(de)結構(gou),使兩(liang)者在(zai)(zai)幣種、金(jin)額和(he)(he)期(qi)(qi)(qi)限上盡量(liang)匹配,從而減(jian)(jian)輕(qing)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)。 4. 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應對(dui)(dui) 建立(li)完善的(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)策(ce)機制(zhi)和(he)(he)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)流程是(shi)(shi)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)應對(dui)(dui)的(de)(de)(de)(de)關鍵。當匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)事件發生時,企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)能夠及(ji)時做(zuo)出決(jue)策(ce)并(bing)采取有效的(de)(de)(de)(de)應對(dui)(dui)措施(shi)(shi)。例如(ru)當匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)突然大(da)幅波動(dong)時,企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)能夠迅速(su)調整(zheng)產(chan)品價格、調整(zheng)進(jin)出口計劃等(deng)(deng)。 (四(si))風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao) 風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)對(dui)(dui)于匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)至關重要。企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)需要定(ding)期(qi)(qi)(qi)對(dui)(dui)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)情況進(jin)行(xing)統計和(he)(he)分(fen)析,及(ji)時向相(xiang)關部(bu)門和(he)(he)高(gao)層管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)層報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)狀況以(yi)(yi)及(ji)應對(dui)(dui)措施(shi)(shi)。例如(ru)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)財務(wu)部(bu)門每月制(zhi)作匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao),匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)報(bao)(bao)當月匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)波動(dong)對(dui)(dui)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)財務(wu)狀況的(de)(de)(de)(de)影響、已經采取的(de)(de)(de)(de)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)管(guan)理(li)(li)(li)(li)措施(shi)(shi)以(yi)(yi)及(ji)對(dui)(dui)未(wei)來(lai)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)預測(ce)等(deng)(deng),以(yi)(yi)便決(jue)策(ce)者根(gen)據報(bao)(bao)告(gao)(gao)(gao)做(zuo)出合(he)(he)(he)(he)理(li)(li)(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)(de)決(jue)策(ce)。
五、匯率風險管理策略分類及選擇因素
(一(yi)(yi)(yi))匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)管(guan)理策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)分(fen)類 1. 保守(shou)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve) 保守(shou)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)傾(qing)向于(yu)(yu)*程(cheng)度地降低匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian),可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)會放棄一(yi)(yi)(yi)些潛在的(de)盈利機會。例(li)如企(qi)業會盡可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)地固定匯(hui)率(lv)(lv),采用較(jiao)多的(de)套期保值工具,確(que)保資產和(he)負債(zhai)在匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)下的(de)穩定性。 2. 進取策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve) 進取策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)更注重(zhong)利用匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)獲(huo)(huo)取收(shou)益(yi)。企(qi)業可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)會主動(dong)參與外匯(hui)市場的(de)交易,根據自(zi)己(ji)對匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)走(zou)勢(shi)的(de)預(yu)測進行買賣操作。這種(zhong)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)較(jiao)高,但(dan)如果預(yu)測準確(que),收(shou)益(yi)也可(ke)(ke)能(neng)(neng)非常可(ke)(ke)觀。 3. 中(zhong)間(jian)(jian)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve) 中(zhong)間(jian)(jian)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)是介(jie)于(yu)(yu)保守(shou)和(he)進取之間(jian)(jian)的(de)一(yi)(yi)(yi)種(zhong)策(ce)(ce)(ce)略(lve)(lve)。企(qi)業會在一(yi)(yi)(yi)定程(cheng)度上控制匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)風(feng)(feng)險(xian),同時(shi)也會根據市場情(qing)況嘗試獲(huo)(huo)取一(yi)(yi)(yi)些匯(hui)率(lv)(lv)波(bo)動(dong)帶來的(de)收(shou)益(yi)。
(二(er))影響匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率風險(xian)管理策(ce)略(lve)(lve)選擇的因(yin)素 1. 匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率風險(xian)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)程度(du)(du)(du) 如果企業(ye)的匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率風險(xian)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)程度(du)(du)(du)較高,例如企業(ye)在海(hai)外有大量的外幣資產和負債,那么可能(neng)會(hui)傾向于選擇保(bao)(bao)守(shou)策(ce)略(lve)(lve);如果風險(xian)暴(bao)露(lu)(lu)程度(du)(du)(du)較低,則可能(neng)會(hui)考慮進取(qu)策(ce)略(lve)(lve)或中(zhong)間策(ce)略(lve)(lve)。 2. 預(yu)期(qi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率波動(dong)幅度(du)(du)(du) 當預(yu)期(qi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率波動(dong)幅度(du)(du)(du)較大時,保(bao)(bao)守(shou)策(ce)略(lve)(lve)可能(neng)更(geng)為(wei)合適,因(yin)為(wei)較大的波動(dong)意(yi)味著更(geng)高的風險(xian);而(er)如果預(yu)期(qi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率波動(dong)幅度(du)(du)(du)較小,企業(ye)可能(neng)會(hui)選擇進取(qu)策(ce)略(lve)(lve)或中(zhong)間策(ce)略(lve)(lve)來(lai)獲取(qu)一定的收益。
匯(hui)率風(feng)(feng)險管(guan)理培(pei)訓在成都可能會涉(she)及上述多個方面的內容,旨(zhi)在幫助企業、銀行(xing)等機構更好地應(ying)對(dui)匯(hui)率波動帶來的風(feng)(feng)險和挑戰,提高其在國(guo)際經濟活動中(zhong)的競爭力和穩定性。
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